LINKING CLIMATE STRESS, LAND-USE CHANGE AND RIVER-SYSTEM SUSTAINABILITY: A GIS-BASED ECOLOGICAL EQUILIBRIUM INDEX FOR SERBIA
Aleksandar Valjarević
Publication
Book of Abstracts and Contributed Papers ,
Pages: 14-19,
https://doi.org/10.69646/aob260902
2nd International Meeting on Building Bridges Between Climate Science and Society Through a Transdisciplinary Network
Published by: Scientific Society Isaac Newton Belgrade
Published: 2026
Abstract
River systems are increasingly exposed to interacting pressures from land-use change, urbanization and climate extremes. This study presents a GIS-based Ecological Equilibrium Index (EEI) for national-scale screening of river-system sustainability in Serbia. The operational index integrates land-use/land-cover ecological support, normalized river-network density and land-use pressure on a harmonized 100 × 100 m grid, while climate, demographic and water-related hazards are used as supporting layers for interpretation. The national mean EEI is 0.149, indicating a slightly positive but transitional condition, with low and very low values concentrated along major urban-industrial river corridors. River-network reductions of 20% in Belgrade, 18% in Novi Sad, 15% in Niš and 13% in Pančevo coincide with intensified land transformation. Climate stress can further amplify these pressures through drought, reduced dilution, intense runoff and flood hazards, highlighting the need for integrated spatial planning, river restoration and climate adaptation.


